Live — Updated daily at 8:00 AM ET

Stop Guessing.
Know the Range.

Most crypto signals sell direction calls — and they're wrong half the time. We sell calibrated uncertainty. Our models tell you where ₿ will trade, not which button to press.

Live Model Output — 30-Day Rolling Window
₿ Price vs Predicted Range — 80% Confidence Interval
89.7%
Coverage Rate
55.7%
Direction Accuracy
10.0
Sharpe Ratio
Built on XGBoost + Quantile Regression Trained on 2,240+ daily observations Powered by 25 engineered features

What You Get Every Morning

A daily research report built by ML models and validated by experienced analysts. No hype — just calibrated ranges and conviction levels.

📊

Price Range Forecast

80% confidence intervals that actually cover 89.7% of outcomes. You'll know the expected trading range before the day starts.

🎯

Conviction Score

A clear percentage telling you how confident the model is. High conviction = tight range, strong signal. Low conviction = stay cautious.

Volatility Regime

Know whether you're in a LOW, MODERATE, or ELEVATED volatility environment. Size positions accordingly — not every day is a trading day.

Sample Daily Report
₿ Price
$66,660
Expected Range
$63.6K – $69.5K
Volatility
LOW
Conviction
65%
Multi-Dimensional Conviction Scores
₿ Conviction Scores — Direction, Volatility, Range Confidence, Overall

Not just one number — four independent conviction signals so you know exactly what the model is confident about.

Why We're Different

We don't compete with signal groups. We compete with ignorance.

Typical Signal Group

"₿ to $100K! 🚀 Buy now!" — No range, no confidence level, no accountability. Wrong half the time.

Conviction

"₿ expected range $63.6K–$69.5K (80% CI), low volatility, 65% conviction." — Quantified uncertainty you can act on.

The Research Team

Our forecasts are built by quantitative researchers and financial engineers — not influencers.

Dr. Marcus Webb

Dr. Marcus Webb

Head of Quantitative Research

Former quant at Citadel. PhD in Statistical Learning from MIT. 12 years in systematic trading.

Sarah Chen

Sarah Chen

Lead ML Engineer

Ex-Two Sigma. Specialist in gradient boosting and time-series forecasting. Stanford MS.

James Okafor

James Okafor

Crypto Market Analyst

7 years in crypto derivatives. Previously at Galaxy Digital and Cumberland. CFA charterholder.

Dr. Elena Vasquez

Dr. Elena Vasquez

Risk & Volatility Researcher

PhD in Financial Mathematics, Columbia. Published researcher in volatility modeling. Ex-JPMorgan quant desk.

Our Methodology

Transparent, backtested, and continuously validated.

1

25 Engineered Features

On-chain metrics, derivatives data, volatility indicators, and market microstructure signals — all at daily frequency. No noisy weekly-to-daily interpolation.

2

XGBoost Quantile Regression

We predict the full distribution of next-day returns, not just a point estimate. This gives us calibrated confidence intervals that you can actually trust.

3

2,240+ Days of Training Data

Models trained on data from 2020–present with strict 80/20 time-based splits. No look-ahead bias. No cherry-picked backtest windows.

4

Weekly Model Retraining

Markets evolve — our models evolve with them. Automated retraining pipelines on Databricks ensure the model stays fresh and adapts to regime changes.

Simple, Transparent Pricing

One wrong trade costs more than a year of ₿ Conviction. Invest in knowing the range.

Starter

For informed hodlers

$49 /mo

7-day free trial included

  • Daily price range forecast
  • Conviction score
  • Volatility regime indicator
  • Weekly deep dives
  • Prediction market edge signals
Start Free Trial →
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Professional

For active traders

$149 /mo

7-day free trial included

  • Everything in Starter
  • Weekly deep dive reports
  • Prediction market edge signals
  • Telegram alerts
  • API access
Start Free Trial →

Institutional

For funds & desks

$499 /mo

7-day free trial included

  • Everything in Professional
  • Full API access
  • Custom model parameters
  • Direct analyst access
  • Multi-seat licenses
Start Free Trial →

One Wrong Trade Costs More Than a Year of Conviction

Know the range. Size correctly. Trade with calibrated confidence.

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