Sep 23, 2026 weekly deep dive

Cost-Basis Migration and Golden Cross Confirm the Cycle Has Turned

₿ Conviction

Bitcoin’s onchain holder structure has completed its bear-market rotation, and the technical confirmation that follows looks textbook. Nearly 37 percent of the circulating supply now sits in the $56k-$92k cost-basis band, with the $78k-$92k cohort alone holding over 14 percent — the single largest cluster on the chain. That concentration represents a new floor of conviction built during months of macro stress, and it is the kind of foundation from which prior cycles launched their expansions.

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