₿ Conviction

Bitcoin Bears Face a Patience Test as Coin Rotation Lags Prior Cycles

Bitcoin is trading 10 percent off the $58.2k lows with sentiment shifting from capitulation to cautious optimism, but on-chain coin rotation data tells a different story. The $56-66k prior-cycle-top cohort has absorbed only 1.94 percent of supply so far -- well below the 42 percent rotation seen at the same stage of the 2022 bear -- suggesting dip buyers in the $66-92k range may face another reckoning. ETF inflows have been flat for nearly two months, spot volumes sit at cycle lows, and Strategy's first meaningful BTC sale signals the end of its dilution playbook. Across the ecosystem the equity-vs-token alignment debate is heating up, the CLARITY Act's odds have slipped to 47 percent, and Solana is showing early green shoots in real-world assets. The macro view remains structurally bearish with probabilities pointing to a lower low before year-end.

Crypto Recovery Holds as Clarity Act Odds Fade

The tactical rebound in crypto continued to build as geopolitical concerns eased and broader risk assets stabilized, though the legislative path for market structure regulation is narrowing faster than many expected.

The ₿ Conviction model portfolio — current allocation and positioning, updated alongside each Weekly Deep Dive.

Cash at 25.26% with the store-of-value bucket (BTC and ETH) as the largest position at 37.68%. The diversified altcoin sleeve carries 31.06% across onchain perps and options (14.26%), consumer retail and fast trading (7.59%), memecoins (6.42%), stablecoins (5.37%), and AI and digital identity (2.77%), with a residual crypto financial services position…