Sep 10, 2026 commentary

Crypto Absorbs Historic Yield Spike as CPI Looms

Conviction

The front end of the Treasury curve repriced violently today, with the 2-year yield posting one of its largest single-session increases in nearly a decade. Markets now assign roughly 70% odds to a September hike and are pricing approximately three rate increases over the next year. Despite this, the digital asset complex absorbed the move with notable composure — ETH/BTC actually rose on the session while ETH itself declined only modestly in absolute terms. That relative resilience matters.

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