Two Rate Hikes Are Now Priced, and a Fragile Labor Market Is the Crack to Watch

Bitcoin continues to hover below the desk’s $65k “fair value” target nearly 10 months into the latest bear market, and the read is that seller exhaustion is nearly complete. At the same time, the market has moved to price two Fed rate hikes this year — a setup that pits a maturing on-chain bottom against a hawkish macro turn. The key question is whether the economy can actually handle those hikes. Here is the framework: