Jun 30, 2026 commentary

Supply Overhang Persists as Stablecoin Competition Intensifies

₿ Conviction

Bitcoin’s inability to join a broad tech-led rally underscores that corporate treasury supply concerns remain the dominant short-term headwind, while a consortium-backed stablecoin launch introduces a material competitive threat to the leading issuer’s growth thesis. Today’s session exposed the gap between macro-risk appetite and crypto positioning — equities ripped higher, but bitcoin and the surrounding ecosystem sat out the move entirely.

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