Weekly Deep Dive: Onchain Pain Trails Prior Bears as Bitcoin Holds Sixty Two Thousand

Bitcoin has rallied 12% off the June 5 low and is defending the 200-week moving average near $62k. But the onchain pain ledger is still only 58% of what prior bear markets booked at the same stage, the prior-cycle top-buyer cohort has not yet handed off its supply, ETF outflows just hit a new 30-day record, and long-term holder supply has printed an all-time high — the same May 2022 setup that preceded the back-half capitulation. Here is what is happening in plain English: