Iran Calm and Lower Crude Improve Bitcoin Setup

The tactical backdrop heading into this week’s FOMC is incrementally better than it was a week ago, and most of the improvement is exogenous to crypto. Iran headlines have turned constructive, crude has rolled over meaningfully, Treasury yields have eased, and the rates market has begun to take some of the priced-in hike risk back out of the curve. None of that guarantees higher prices, but it does soften the liquidity headwind that has been weighing on the majors for most of this year.