Monday's Bounce Lacked Conviction — Bears Still in Control

Another Monday Bounce, Another Fade

Bitcoin’s pattern of bouncing on Mondays has become almost mechanical at this point — and increasingly unconvincing. This week’s edition saw a brief intraday pop of a few percent before sellers stepped in and erased most of the move. Five weeks running, same playbook, but each bounce is smaller than the last. That’s not accumulation — that’s exhaustion.

What stood out was the lack of real buying behind the move. Spot volumes were thin, and the persistent discount on US-facing exchanges suggested institutional desks weren’t participating with any urgency. When rallies happen on air rather than flows, they tend to be short-lived.

Dollar Strength and Jobs Data: A One-Two Punch

Two macro forces are converging that could pressure BTC further. The dollar index has quietly ripped from below 96 to above 100 over the past few weeks — driven by rate expectations and short-covering. A stronger dollar is rarely kind to risk assets, and crypto is no exception.

Meanwhile, this week’s labor data could be the catalyst that shifts the narrative from “inflation is the problem” to “growth is the problem.” Oil is rising while yields are falling — a classic setup for recession anxiety. If jobs disappoint, expect another volatility spike.

Our Take

Bulls need to prove something here and they haven’t yet. BTC holding up better than beaten-down tech names is a small silver lining, but that’s a low bar. Without a meaningful pickup in spot demand and some clarity on the macro front, the bias stays bearish. Keep cash heavy, stay patient, and don’t mistake a mechanical bounce for a trend change.