Bitcoin research
without the noise.

Weekly deep dives and real-time commentary on Bitcoin markets. Macro, on-chain, and market structure — written for investors who want analysis, not hype.

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Two publications. One subscription.

Everything in one place — no newsletters scattered across platforms, no Discord, no noise. Plus the ₿ Conviction model portfolio, updated with every Weekly Deep Dive.

💬

Commentary

Real-time · When it matters

Short-form analysis published when markets move. Breaking down key events, institutional signals, and inflection points as they happen — not the next morning.

  • Geopolitical and macro catalysts
  • Short squeeze and liquidation analysis
  • Sentiment readings as contrarian signals
  • Cross-asset signals and divergences
  • On-chain and market structure shifts
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Weekly Deep Dives

Every Thursday

Comprehensive weekly synthesis connecting macro, on-chain data, and market structure into a coherent picture — plus explicit positioning and what to watch next week.

  • Weekly scorecard with key metrics
  • Macro overlay: Fed, geopolitics, equities
  • On-chain analysis: Realized Price, 200W MA
  • Market structure: perps, DEX, stablecoin flows
  • Portfolio positioning and allocation
  • Watchlist for the week ahead
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Crypto Portfolio

Refreshed weekly

The ₿ Conviction model portfolio — live allocation across BTC, ETH, and select positions, with the reasoning behind each change documented in the corresponding Weekly Deep Dive.

  • Current target weights at a glance
  • Cash vs. deployed capital breakdown
  • Change log tied to each weekly issue
  • Rationale rooted in macro and on-chain data
  • No day-trade noise — conviction positioning only

What we've been covering

A sample of recent commentary and weekly issues.

From Extreme Fear to Ceasefire Rally

Anatomy of the reversal, what the shift from Fear & Greed 11 to recovery means for positioning, and how to size into strength without chasing.

The Ceasefire Rally — BTC Reclaims $72K as $595M in Shorts Get Liquidated

Breaking down the catalyst chain, the forced covering mechanics, and whether the rally has legs or is a relief bounce into resistance.

Crypto Landscape Health Check — Stablecoins Stall, DEX Perps Surge

Total market cap down 45% from peak, spot volumes collapsed 70%, DEX perps at 9.3% of CEX — what the structural shifts actually mean.

Forecasting the Cycle Low

Where BTC bottoms based on Realized Price, 200-week MA, and historical drawdowns. Macro headwinds, recession odds, and why patience still makes sense.

What we actually analyze

No price predictions. No buy/sell signals. Structured analysis across the areas that move markets.

Macro

  • Fed policy and rate expectations
  • Geopolitical risk and energy markets
  • Recession probability and labor data
  • Cross-asset signals (equities, bonds, DXY)
  • Financial conditions

On-Chain

  • Realized Price and 200-week moving average
  • Fear & Greed as contrarian indicator
  • Stablecoin supply and flows
  • BTC dominance and alt rotation
  • Cycle positioning vs. prior drawdowns

Market Structure

  • Perpetual futures: OI, funding, liquidations
  • CEX vs DEX volume shifts
  • Institutional positioning and ETF flows
  • Spot volume trends
  • Emerging infrastructure layers

Simple, transparent pricing

Both plans include full access to all commentary and weekly deep dives.

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  • All commentary
  • All weekly deep dives
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